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View Full Version : China's real estate bubble....


Nevadan
04-14-2010, 09:24 AM
Until I saw this interview, with James Spanos (a hedge fund manager that specializes in short-selling), two nights ago on Charlie Rose, I had no notion of a real estate bubble in China. When it aired I was halfway distracted through parts of it and so missed some of the ideas. Anyway, I went back and re-watched it and found it very interesting and a bit unnerving. One of the problems that brought us to where we are now...home buyers/speculators making low incomes ($40k-ish) buying $500k homes...is going on now in China's cities. Certainly there are differences in the situation, like super-strong centralized control of banking amongst others, but there are similarities too, like having a massive centralized government that can nationalize bad debt. Sound familiar?

Just so you know, Spanos figured out Enron early on and made a bundle betting against them, so he's not stupid by any stretch. Despite what your view is of short sellers in the market, this valid information because he has a track record of hitting on these situations and he's betting against China.

It's about 30 minutes long, so check it out (http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960), 'cause it just might have an affect on our economy and our lot in life....especially if you have money invested there or if you do business providing commodities there...like copper, steel, concrete, etc.

Stuck in Seattle
04-14-2010, 12:12 PM
Didn't watch, but China keeps their economy churning by devaluing their currency. Their labor (and other) costs are already increasing and other countries are beginning to attract companies that would have moved to China for cheap labor just a few years ago. Throw in their demographic trends and internal troubles and they are a paper tiger. I don't know how they'll fare in the short term, but they are definitely going to have problems in the long term.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of places that will continue to assemble and sell us stuff on the cheap, thus helping keep inflation low even with our country's finances in such bad shape.